Thin VBet...or not?

Villian was 40/30ish over a very insignificant sample size

Can I bet this river because I KNOW he's too scopey to ever bluff this river? Like he's risking his stack 1 time in 1,000 on a bluff here esp with no history

I liked betting my set here, felt a little dirty but I was folding to any raise on the river, giving credit to Kx or a bd flush. Even a min raise

Was hoping to get a bit of value from 2 pair hands, maybe bet a little smaller on river?


***** Pacific Hand History for Game 114355651 *****
$0.25/$0.5 Blinds No Limit Hold'em - *** 02 11 23:22:11 2009
Table Rey Del Mundo Elegantes (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 3: sahkermahker ( $77.62 )
Seat 4: fatjoelv88 ( $45.78 )
Seat 5: LossAversion ( $50 )
Seat 6: robe846 ( $17.98 )
Seat 7: Dragomanas ( $57.32 )
sahkermahker posts small blind [$0.25].
fatjoelv88 posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to LossAversion [ 3h 3s ]
LossAversion raises [$1.75].
robe846 folds.
Dragomanas folds.
sahkermahker folds.
fatjoelv88 calls [$1.25].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 3c, As ]
fatjoelv88 checks.
LossAversion bets [$2.5].
fatjoelv88 calls [$2.5].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Js ]
fatjoelv88 checks.
LossAversion bets [$6].
fatjoelv88 calls [$6].
** Dealing River ** [ Qs ]
fatjoelv88 checks.
LossAversion bets [$14].
fatjoelv88 folds.
** Summary **
LossAversion collected [$33.72].

Board: Th As Js Qs 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.541% 49.54% 00.00% 54 0.00 { JJ-TT, ATs+, A3s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 50.459% 50.46% 00.00% 55 0.00 { 3h3s }


Its pretty damn thin, and that assumes he's calling with every 2pair thats possible. I think i'd check this down because i dont expect unknowns to call down every combo of 2ps here, but its close and i don't hate the bet. The fact that he isnt gonna bluff [how do u know that?] is somewhat important because you can just calculate whether you're going to be ahead >50% when called. If he turns his Ax or 910 type of hands into bluffs it becomes problematic, and you definitely want to be more inclined to check.

I know he's not going to bluff because he's shown over a small sample that he's a fit or fold player.

I'm not sure how many 50NL players ever turn Ax or T9 into bluffs on the river? I know I rarely do and I'd say I'm slightly above average for aggressiveness @ 50s.

Anyway, nice stoving...I like to push that 0.5% edge. Haha